Population growth compounds, though. Once you’ve colonized a million worlds, the next million would come in a fraction of the time of the first million, and the next 2 million in less time than that, then 4 million in the same time as before, etc. Like grains of rice on a chessboard. Totally feasible to fill a galaxy if FTL travel is achieved.
More likely - FTL is impossible so each species is stuck in their own solar system.
Yeah, it's really hard for the human brain to intuitively grasp exponential growth. Anyone who says a galaxy is "too big" hasn't actually run the numbers on that.
FTL is impossible so each species is stuck in their own solar system.
FTL is in no way necessary to allow for interstellar colonization to proceed.
The number show that with the right technology, meaning ships can accelerate to 0.05c and we can convert asteroid fields to self-sustainable habitats, a civilization could colonize the Milky Way in about 200,000 years. A blink of the eye in cosmological time scales. FTL isn’t necessary, except perhaps for cohesion.
Even if another life existed out there at an ideal distance to be receiving our first radio signals now, and they could receive it, and they were at a similar enough technology level…
This would also mean they were ~100LY away, or a 200 year cycle to communicate, once they deciphered our signal.
Yeah with all the time in the universe and how short our civilization has been technological I’m a big fan of the theory that the galaxy is just a big graveyard of civilizations that sprouted and died over the past few billion years. Maybe there’s another few right now dotted around but we’ll never know before we or they die out.
I mean, even if there were many civilizations, I’m betting that any that are smart enough to explore the cosmos have realized one or multiple of the following:
It’s possible to ‘explore’ a massive amount of detail without leaving your home system.
Any civilization that can communicate over vast distances also has vast capability to deliver power to an acute area.
Any civilization on the cusp of 2 is capable of ridiculous levels of distruction, and it’d be wise to make sure they’re totally peaceful before making them aware of you.
… Also, I’m a firm believer that humans and other megafauna are, well, mega. Humans are insanely massive on the scale of life as we know it, and life may not need to become so massive to never the less spread out. For all we know, Earth is a battlefield of life that is successful in the grand scheme of things, and humans et. al. are like the Death Stars of the ancient civilizations that are very much still alive.
(ok ok that last bit is very hyperbolic but it should still convey the idea!)
They wouldn’t receive the signal if they’re at the same tech level. Radiation from our communication tapers off well below background levels at 100ly. Maybe if they got lucky and had very, very sensitive instruments aimed our way at the right moment, they might detect something that didn’t fit background, but our power output pales in comparison to the cosmos.
Just look at all the tricks scientists have to pull to communicate with Voyager, and it’s not even outside of the frigging solar system, yet!
I think they are talking but their voices are actually just too high for us to hear. This is why some dogs can be so skittish at times, because they can hear the aliens saying really mean things about us behind our backs
Or maybe we actually are the first interstellar civilisation. With features like Jupiter and especially our giant ass moon seeming to be pretty rare we still don’t know what it really takes to make a planet habitable. Let alone habitable in such a way that it creates intelligent life.
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