On 20 April 2016, the Sky and Telescope website reported a sustained brightening since February 2015 from magnitude 10.5 to about 9.2. A similar event was reported in 1938, followed by another outburst in 1946.[20] By June 2018, the star had dimmed slightly but still remained at an unusually high level of activity. In March or April 2023, it dimmed to magnitude 12.3.[21] A similar dimming occurred in the year before the 1945 outburst, indicating that it will likely erupt between March and September 2024.
And if I’m interpreting some of the other content correctly, it’ll come and go in one night? Maybe someone who knows more about these can confirm or correct me.. See update below.
Also …
Even when at peak magnitude of 2.5, this recurrent nova is dimmer than about 120 stars in the night sky.
Once its brightness peaks, it should be visible to the unaided eye for several days and just over a week with binoculars before it dims again, possibly for another 80 years.
Reminds me of when Betelgeuse, the orange upper star of Orion, went dim in 2020. Lots of amateur reports on its brightness, 3x per night, for a few months waiting for it to go nova. It settled down a bit before disappearing behind the sun for the season and came back just fine. It was kinda fun to monitor, but soooo many false alarms from people trying to call it first
So, there’s nothing in universe that is longer than “soon”. This prediction of going nova this year, only means it already happened but you can’t see it yet. And since it’s going super nova, that means entire even will be boring anyway. You’ll see a white dot that will increase in intensity during this year and then fade away equally slowly.
For people wondering about dates, there are none. Just like Beetlejuice is expected to explode soon™, that actually means 3000-10000+ years of waiting. So don’t get your hopes up. Out lives are but a blink in universe. All you can do is be diligent and watch it constantly. Doesn’t mean you’ll see much either since at peak magnitude of 2.5 it will be dim enough that you’ll need telescope to see it.
Nova, not supernova. Novas happen multiple times. Supernova do not but it doesn’t say supernova. Soon, as in within the next 6 months since its following a cycle that happened about 80 and 160 years ago.
Visible with unaided eyes for several days (but still dimmer than about 120 stars in the sky), and with binoculars for about a week, according to NASA.
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